 New York Knicks 2009/2010 |
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After a nine-game leap last season, should we expect more of the same ? Maybe not
Offseason Moves
New York's offseason was a little bit like "Seinfeld" -- it was a show about nothing. There were a lot of meetings, discussions and rumors, but in the end the Knicks made no deals after draft day except to bring back their own free agents.
That said, it was a bit bizarre to see them offer Jason Kidd and Grant Hill multiyear deals -- not exactly the types of players you'd expect a rebuilding team to pursue. Fortunately for the Knicks, both players rebuffed their advances, leaving the Knicks on a pace to have enough cap room to pursue a major free agent a year from now and still fill in with other talent around the edges.
If they can somehow find another taker for the contracts of Jeffries and/or Curry, they could add two major free agents at once in 2010. Given the magnet that is the Big Apple, that might allow them to turn things around overnight; unfortunately, dealing either contract is a major long shot.
Incidentally, Thomas left the Knicks with another major liability in 2010 -- he traded their first-round draft pick, unprotected, to acquire Marbury when he first took over the team. That deal not only may cost the Knicks a high lottery pick in the 2010 draft, but by rule also precludes them from trading their first-rounder in 2011 -- something that could have helped sweeten a deal involving Jeffries or Curry.
Drafted Jordan Hill and Toney Douglas.
I'm not a huge fan of Hill, but the Knicks sorely needed some athleticism in the frontcourt, and he can certainly provide it. He's unlikely to star, but if he can rebound and block some shots, he'll be a decent value with the eighth overall pick in a weak draft. Douglas has a rep as an ace defender but is undersized for a shooting guard and didn't shoot particularly well in college. He'll need to play right away, however, as the Knicks are badly lacking in wing depth.
Traded Quentin Richardson and cash to Memphis for Darko Milicic.
This was a fantastic swap for the Knicks. They acquired a quality defensive center in return for one of their least productive wing players, and they accomplished it without harming their cap situation in 2010. Milicic's offensive potential was largely a figment of scouts' imaginations, but his length and timing at the defensive end make him a strong performer when he's motivated. Look for the Knicks to make heavy use of him to take some of the strain off Lee in the middle.
Re-signed David Lee for one year, $8 million.
As a restricted free agent, Lee had trouble getting decent offers and settled on returning to the Knicks. He'll try again as an unrestricted free agent a year from now. In the meantime, it's a low-risk deal for the Knicks to keep their best young player around. By keeping him in the fold, they maintain a fall-back position should the top free agents spurn them next summer, and by limiting the contract to one year, they don't cut into their 2010 cap space.
Re-signed Nate Robinson for one year, $4 million.
As with Lee, Robinson was a restricted free agent who had trouble getting decent nibbles. As with Lee, he ended up returning for less than market value, allowing the Knicks to keep him around for a year and see what happens.
Biggest Strength: Offensive Versatility
The Knicks lack a go-to star scorer, but they make up for it with the ability to attack in several different ways. Chris Duhon and Lee are a deadly pick-and-roll combo, with Lee among the best in the league at taking a pass on the move in the lane and flying in for the finish, making that play a staple of the Knicks' offense. It also opens up some action on the perimeter, particularly for Harrington. While he's a little too enthusiastic about shooting off the catch, Harrington's ability to space the floor and attack bigger players off the dribble makes him a tough matchup for opposing 4s.
Off the bench, the Knicks have human TNT in the form of Robinson, the diminutive but explosive guard. He's out of control at times, but he can also get on crazy hot streaks. Last season he reined in his play just enough to provide a potent sixth man, and they'll ask him to do it again. The two young small forwards, Gallinari and Wilson Chandler, also offer offensive weapons. Gallinari shot extremely well in his limited minutes a year ago and has a rep as a skilled passer as well. As for Chandler, his numbers overstate his effectiveness (more on that below), but he can finish in transition and attack the basket off the dribble.
Finally, there's Curry. It's not clear what to expect from him this season, but he can be a deadly low-post scorer when he's in shape and motivated. Should that happen, he can give the Knicks' offense a completely different dimension that it lacked a year ago.
Biggest Weakness: Wings
I'm tempted to say frontcourt defense, but the Knicks should be better off on that front. Milicic gives them a true defensive center for the first time in ages, Hill should contribute energy and athleticism, and anything they get from Curry would be gravy. Based on the above, I suspect they'll block a lot more than 2.9 percent of opponent shots this season.
But they look awfully shaky on the wings. Larry Hughes and Chandler project as the starters, and while each makes for a decent rotation player, they're stretched to the limit in a 40-minute role. Hughes washed out as a starter in his past two stops thanks to his wayward outside shooting and iffy shot selection, while Chandler's gaudy per-game averages from a year ago are largely a by-product of the Knicks' fast pace and his own heavy minutes. On a per-minute basis, he's a mediocre offensive player and, like Hughes, an iffy shooter who doesn't create much for the others.
Those two must start, though, because there's little available in reserve. Late first-round pick Toney Douglas is the primary backup at shooting guard, while at small forward the Knicks will have to hope for a return to health from Gallinari -- not to mention pray that he can stay in front of the same 3s who blazed by him a year ago. The only other alternative is Jeffries, a truly rotten offensive player who has marginal utility as a defender in traps and presses.
Outlook
This is the last year of low expectations for the Knicks, and they may very well take full advantage of that fact. New York lacks an All-Star performer and is unlikely to make any moves to upgrade the roster during the season, as it needs to protect its precious cap-space trove for 2010 and hope that LeBron James, Chris Bosh or somebody else will step up to take it. If anything, the Knicks will spend the season shedding assets as they look to find new homes for Jeffries and Curry. Don't be surprised if the Knicks showcase those two, which would further diminish the team's prospects.
While New York has some nice pieces in Lee, Robinson, Chandler, Hill and Gallinari, the lack of star power and defensive grit could mean it takes a step back even from a year ago. While the frontcourt defense should be stronger than it was a year ago, New York is unlikely to be a strong defensive team overall. Additionally, the team has very little firepower on the wings and may experience a dip from last season's offensive numbers, particularly if Robinson and Lee regress from their career years. Another potentially aggravating factor is that five of the Knicks' top six players are free agents after the season -- meaning personal agendas could easily supplant team goals.
As a result of all those problems, New York is more likely to finish near the bottom of the Eastern Conference heap than challenge for a playoff spot. Fortunately, they can still sell their fans hope … just not immediate hope. Between the limited roster and the impending cap space, New York's next summer is likely to be a lot more exciting than its upcoming season.
Prediction: 26-56, 4th in Atlantic Division, 13th in Eastern Conference.
21 Wilson Chandler
5 Joe Crawford
34 Eddy Curry
23 Toney Douglas
1 Chris Duhon
8 Danilo Gallinari
7 Al Harrington
43 Jordan Hill
0 Larry Hughes
31 Chris Hunter
20 Jared Jeffries
11 Marcus Landry
42 David Lee
31 Darko Milicic
2 Nate Robinson
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