 Toronto Raptors 2009/2010 |
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Adding Hedo Turkoglu to a solid Raptors team may be a recipe for success … or disaster
Offseason Moves
The Raptors liked the finish well enough to re-up Triano and remove the interim tag from his name, giving the league's only Canadian team its only Canadian coach. That barely draws a mention in any discussion of Toronto's offseason, however, because GM Bryan Colangelo was so busy tearing down the roster and rebuilding it. It might be his final shot, as it's been three years and the Raps remain mired in mediocrity.
Suffice it to say it was a busy summer north of the border, as Colangelo sought to rebuild the team in the mold of the highly skilled, defense-averse squads he assembled in Phoenix. To his credit, he went for it with gusto. See if you can catch up:
Drafted DeMar DeRozan.
DeRozan's one season at USC was unimpressive, but he has major-league leaping ability that the Raps hope will translate into on-court production. However, his rates of rebounds and blocks were quite ordinary, making one wonder how well he can use his hops in the context of a game. DeRozan also had poor ballhandling and shooting numbers, so he seems more of a long-term project than an immediate contributor.
Agreed to terms with Hedo Turkoglu on a five-year, $53 million deal.
Colangelo swooped in at last minute and plunked all his potential cap space on Turkoglu after the forward had already signaled he'd take a deal with Portland. This was an extremely risky move on Colangelo's part, as signing Turkoglu outright without a sign-and-trade would have used all his cap space, required him to renounce all his free agents, and basically left him with a shell of a roster.
It was risky also because he was paying $53 million to a 30-year-old player who was more of a mid-tier performer than a star. Turkoglu's numbers declined sharply last season and they weren't all that spectacular to begin with. Plus, players like him often decline rapidly as they enter their 30s, so the term of the contract is a major negative.
In fact, let me throw this question out to the audience: Whom would you rather have next year, O'Neal, Marion or Turkoglu? The Raps could have had any of the three and opted for the last player, at much greater expense. He's certainly more durable than O'Neal and may age better than Marion, but on a per-minute basis he was the worst player of the three last season.
Nonetheless, Colangelo salvaged a bunch of value from the deal with his next move …
Swung a sign-and-trade to acquire Turkoglu, Antoine Wright and Devean George for Shawn Marion, Kris Humphries, Nathan Jawai, cash and a second-round pick.
This was huge -- without this deal the Raptors would have been left high and dry by the Turkoglu signing. In fact, it's amazing Orlando didn't squeeze a greater ransom from them given that the Raps had little choice but to meet their demands.
By orchestrating a complicated, four-team sign-and-trade rather than signing Turkoglu outright, the Raptors were able to maintain the rights to restricted free agent Carlos Delfino and preserve their cap exceptions for pursuing other free agents. All it cost them was a player they were going to lose anyway (Marion), a player who is unlikely to ever become a contributor (Jawai) and Humphries. Humphries was strangely underutilized despite strong production in Toronto, but if they weren't playing him anyway, it's tough to view his departure as a huge loss.
Traded George to Golden State for Marco Belinelli.
Toronto essentially purchased Belinelli, filling in a hole on the wings by paying the Warriors to take George off their hands so the trade would meet salary-cap rules. This is the type of low-level acquisition the Raptors have largely failed to execute in recent seasons, and while Belinelli probably isn't good enough to start, he can shoot and takes charges.
Traded Jason Kapono to Philadelphia for Reggie Evans.
The Raptors tried to recruit somebody with toughness to bust some heads in the frontcourt, importing the fairly unproductive but notably physical Evans for the equally unproductive Kapono. This was the third deal in six months (along with O'Neal and Ukic) where the Raps essentially admitted failure, and while that sounds negative, that's actually far better than stubbornly insisting things are working.
Signed and traded Carlos Delfino to Milwaukee, along with Roko Ukic, for Amir Johnson and Sonny Weems.
Although Delfino played in Russia last season, the Raptors retained his rights as a restricted free agent, and when they couldn't agree on a deal directly, the Raptors sent him to the Bucks along with Ukic for Johnson. Johnson is a promising young forward who could be a huge steal, as he played very well in this first two pro seasons prior to a major setback last season.
Let Anthony Parker leave, signed Jarrett Jack for four years, $20 million.
Jack played very well down the stretch of last season and immediately solves the backup point guard dilemma that plagued the team a year ago; additionally, Jack likely will start at the 2. Nonetheless, this was quite a bit to pay for a second-tier combo guard; Shannon Brown, for instance, delivered similar per-minute productivity and signed for a fifth as much. Jack will help the Raptors in the short-term, certainly, but he comes with needless risk.
Signed Rasho Nesterovic for one year, $1.9 million.
This might have been the best value signing of the offseason. Nesterovic isn't sexy, but he can play -- he's big and can defend the post, he makes 15-footers and he has a decent touch around the basket. Sure, he's not exactly a walking elixir for the Raptors' softness problem with his magical ability to avoid drawing fouls, but few backup centers will be more productive and he'll cost less than almost all of them.
Signed Andrea Bargnani to a five-year, $50 million extension.
The only thing more bizarre than this decision was the scuttlebutt around the league that the Raptors' brass celebrated it like they just made the deal of the century. In contrast to the admissions of mistakes noted above, this seemed like hubris on Colangelo's part that Bargnani would eventually prove his questionable decision to draft him first overall the correct one.
While Bargnani's finish to last season provided encouragement, in the big picture he's played three years and has yet to post a PER above the league average, plus he's one of the worst defenders at his position. Additionally, the only reason to extend him for $50 million would be if Colangelo believed that some other team would come after Bargnani with even more money next summer. That's awfully hard to believe given Bargnani's performance over his first three seasons and the blitz of superstar free agents that will be on the market next summer.
Without the extensions, Toronto would have retained the right to match any offer after this season. Thus, even if Bargnani takes the league by storm, they would have been covered. Plus, restricted free agents have had an impossible time getting paid the past few seasons -- witness the travails of David Lee this past summer. Sum it all up and the Raptors needlessly jumped the gun to defend themselves against a microscopic risk, and they are now wedded to Il Mago for six years (this year plus the five years of the extension) at what is likely to be a highly inflated rate for his production.
Biggest Strength: Shooting
Say this about the Raptors -- they'll space the floor and fill it up from outside. Go all through the lineup and you'll see shooters at every spot. Calderon is one of the best marksmen in the game at the point, while Bargnani might be the best-shooting center in the league. Bosh is very adept from outside at the power forward spot, and Turkoglu is a strong spot-up shooter at the 3.
Coming in behind them are the likes of Belinelli, another outstanding spot-up shooter, and Quincy Douby, who has shown flashes of potential as a scoring guard. Jack and Nesterovic are decent outside shooters, too, leaving the backup big men, Evans and Johnson, as the only likely rotation players who really struggle to shoot from outside.
Biggest Weakness: Interior Defense
The Raptors weren't a good defensive team a year ago, and it's tough to see how they'll be any better this time around with a Bosh-Turkoglu-Bargnani frontcourt. The glaring lack of size, toughness and rebounding with that trio could subject Toronto to a series of nightly beatings on post-ups and putbacks, and replacing Parker -- arguably their toughest player a year ago -- will only add to their frailty. Newcomer Johnson is slated to back up at power forward, and while he's an accomplished shot-blocker, he has the same problems with lack of strength and toughness.
The cavalry off the bench may have to ride in to save the day. Nesterovic and Evans are a much more physical duo than Bosh and Bargnani, with Evans in particular being counted on to settle scores when the frontcourt battle gets out of hand. Of course, playing either of these two requires sitting one of the Raptors' key frontcourt scorers, with an obvious cost at the offensive end. The Raptors can defend the interior, in other words -- they just can't do it with their starters.
Outlook
With most of the league's teams, I have a pretty good idea of what to expect this season. For the Raptors, it's the opposite case -- almost nothing they do this year would surprise me. In the past six months Toronto changed out nearly its entire roster around the Calderon-Bosh-Bargnani foundation and are now set up to play a style as distinct as any in basketball.
The Raptors are going to space the floor with shooters, run high pick-and-rolls with Calderon and one of the big guys, find an open man spotting up and rain in jump shots. That's the entire plan, borrowing from the Suns' playbook circa 2006, and it's beautiful when it works. With Calderon, Jack and Turkoglu, they have three guards who can orchestrate, and the offensive skill of their frontcourt may provide enough matchup problems to offset their defensive shortcomings.
On the other hand, nobody besides Bosh draws fouls, they won't get any offensive rebounds and the lack of depth on the wings leaves them relying on some seriously unskilled offensive players (Wright, DeRozan, Evans, Johnson) to make their strategy work.
And then there's the defense. Jack and Bosh are the only starters who play any D, and Jack will be giving up inches as a starting shooting guard. The backups are better at that end, but the Raps may finish last in the league in free throw differential and will struggle to contain good post players.
This is either going to work out spectacularly well or it's going to be spectacularly awful. That is, if they win 50 games, it won't be shocking, and if they win only 25, that won't raise eyebrows, either.
Right now, it's safe to aim for the middle of the two; not necessarily the most likely outcome, but the median outcome. Toronto has one All-Star, limited depth, a couple of obvious strengths and a couple of equally clear weaknesses. That spells mediocre to me, so I'm projecting them to land in the lower middle of the Eastern Conference's huddled mass of contenders. That's just a guess, though -- nobody really knows whether this mishmash will work or not until the balls go up.
Prediction: 35-47, 3rd place in Atlantic Division, 10th in Eastern Conf.
3 Marcus Banks
7 Andrea Bargnani
0 Marco Belinelli
4 Chris Bosh
8 Jose Calderon
10 DeMar DeRozan
5 Quincy Douby
30 Reggie Evans
1 Jarrett Jack
15 Amir Johnson
12 Rasho Nesterovic
13 Patrick O'Bryant
26 Hedo Turkoglu
24 Sonny Weems
21 Antoine Wright
En rouge
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