 PO 2011 1st Round : Mavericks (3) vs Blazers (6) |
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posté par i33 : | Preview
Rob Mahoney (the two man game)
Which is why I regretfully predict that the Blazers will win in seven games. It's not an easy call; these Mavs are skilled and can theoretically execute on both ends. I just think Portland's mismatches will prove a bit too problematic. I think Jason Kidd won't be quite as effective as the Mavs need him to be. I think Dirk Nowitzki and LaMarcus Aldridge will both be tremendous, and the rest of both teams will be left to tip the balance. I think the Blazers can hide Brandon Roy too easily on defense, which lets him stay on the court long enough to cause a problem. I think Wallace and Batum may only hinder Nowitzki, but they're capable of significantly limiting Marion. I think that there is a distinct possibility that the Mavs win this series, but there are just too many concerns to consider it the most likely outcome.
The Mavs are the better team in this series. Sometimes that just isn't enough.
Here's to hoping I'm wrong.
Kevin Pelton (Basketball Prospectus)
Though the two biggest factors--overall performance and home-court advantage--favor the Mavericks, the Blazers come into this series playing stronger basketball. Portland's small, quick frontcourt of Aldridge and Wallace has been highly effective and has made the Blazers a different team since the All-Star break. Additionally, Portland matches up better with Dallas than any of the other West contenders.
I find myself torn on this pick. If the series goes the distance, I have a hard time seeing the Blazers winning Game Seven at the American Airlines Center. They've beaten just one West playoff team on the road with Wallace--the San Antonio Spurs when they were resting stars Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker and playing mostly reserves. If Portland can steal an early game on the road, though, the Blazers might just be able to make that early advantage hold up at the Rose Garden.
Portland in 6
Zach Lowe (SI.com)
This might be the most intriguing series of the first round. The Blazers won the last two of their regular-season meetings with Dallas, and their new versatility gives them the ability to match up with Dallas in several different ways. Portland's big guards, especially Brandon Roy, can thrive against the Mavs' smaller (and, in Jason Kidd's case) slower backcourt, and the Blazers can throw three guys at Dirk Nowitzki -- LaMarcus Aldridge, Marcus Camby and Gerald Wallace. Dallas just snapped a nine-game losing to Western Conference playoff games, and they never quite regained the form that saw them start 43-9 in games Dirk Nowitzki played.
(...)
But still: This Dallas team did start 43-9 with Nowitzki healthy, and it played especially well against elite teams during that span. Only three teams rank in the top 10 in both points scored and allowed per possession: Dallas, the Lakers and Miami. That says something.
(...)
I've liked this Mavs team all season, and I think they're ready to play well enough to win a very tough series. Winning in six would mean clinching in Portland, but Dallas has been the league's best road team all year. Mavericks in 6. |
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